File Name: bread and peace model 2012 .zip
Abramowitz A. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results. Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income. Each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model. However, attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years , and Persistent Identifier of the first edition:.
The paper analyses economic and non-economic factors in order to develop a forecasting model for US Presidential election and predict it. The discussions on forthcoming US Presidential election mention that campaign fund amount and unemployment will be a deciding factor in the election, but our research indicates that campaign fund amount and unemployment are not significant factors for predicting the vote share of the incumbent party. But in case of non—incumbent major opposition party challenger party campaign fund amount does play a role. Growth of economy is found to be significant factor for non-incumbent major opposition party and not for incumbent party. Abramowitz A. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4,
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Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud. We propose a model of electoral competition where, although some voters oppose violence, it is effective in intimidating swing voters. We show that in equilibrium a weak challenger will use violence, which corresponds to a terrorism strategy. Similarly, a nationally weak incumbent will use repression. However, a stronger incumbent facing local competition will prefer to use bribery or ballot fraud. We discuss the applicability of the model to several African elections.
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PDF | President Obama received approximately % of the two-party vote in the election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of.
Skip to search form Skip to main content You are currently offline. Some features of the site may not work correctly. DOI: According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period.
Bread, peace and the attrition of power : economic events and German election results.Anerflorco 12.12.2020 at 10:54
This paper aims at determining the various economic and non-economic factors that can influence the voting behaviour in the forthcoming United States Presidential Election using Lasso regression, a Machine learning algorithm.Afrodille L. 15.12.2020 at 00:18
Final fantasy x guide book pdf schritte international 2 lehrerhandbuch pdf free downloadClarimunda C. 15.12.2020 at 21:50
She was the PSL's nominee and the Peace and Freedom's nominee in the presidential election , her tenth consecutive candidacy as either a presidential or vice presidential candidate.Fe A. 18.12.2020 at 22:46
Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud.